Interview with Jim Clancy, CNN World Report

Subjects: Taiwanese elections; US foreign policy; Myanmar.

New York

Transcript, E&OE, proof only

12 January 2012

JOURNALIST: A man familiar to most of our viewers — Kevin Rudd, the former Australian Prime Minister and current Foreign Minister, joins us from New York.

Great to have you with us, because you have such a background in Taiwanese politics, studies. What do you think it should take in the region? What’s at stake in this election on Saturday?

MR RUDD: You know with every Taiwanese election, we always take a deep breath and hope for the best because this is one of the red line issues for Beijing, that is, the future status of Taiwan.

We all know mainland China’s policy, which is that Taiwan’s part of China and they want to see it back as a formal part of the motherland.

And as your report has just indicated on Taiwan itself, you still have a significant move for a local identity, and ultimately some form of local independence.

So, the key thing with this election is obviously if the Democratic Progress Party wins, there’ll be an audible sucking in of breath in Beijing, and if Ma Ying-jeou from the Kuomintang, the KMT, win, then it will be business as usual.

So, I think we’re in for a few rocky days as the Taiwanese people go to vote.

JOURNALIST: Having said all of that, there are differences here, and that’s, you know, the obvious reaction I think you’ve predicted it as clearly as anybody could, but there are other economic realities that are there, the patience that China has shown with all of this. There are a lot of reasons to think that this is going to smooth out no matter who wins.

MR RUDD: You know, I think there’s a lot of wisdom in that.

The Chinese have learnt from previous elections back in the days of Chen Shui-bian, the former DPP or Democratic Progress Party pro-independent President of Taiwan. The Chinese have learnt that it’s best not to come in with the heavy hand and try to suggest a military tread of one form or another.

So what we’ve seen in recent times is very much a velvet glove of diplomacy. What we’ve seen is the Chinese opening up economic links and economic ties, huge tourism links, big economic benefits to the people of Taiwan, and they’ve been very quiet in the conduct of these Taiwanese elections. So even if the Democratic Progress Party wins, I don’t think we’re looking at a catastrophe, but let me tell you we will be in for a tense period, given even the public statements of the DPP candidate, Dr Tsai Ing-wen.

JOURNALIST: You know, this week we heard from Washington that the US is going to shift its military focus. You know, I don’t think that the US really focused on this news enough — shift the focus of the military from Europe/Middle East across the world to Asia. And China certainly noticed. Is this a welcome move in Asia?

MR RUDD: Well, we understand why the United States had undertaken its Global Force Posture Review. It’s a huge military budget and there are enormous pressures in the Congress to bring expenditure under control.

What we find is strategically significant is the US, when President Obama visited the region just recently including to the Australian Parliament in Canberra, is very clear that the United States would not be undertaking any net military withdrawal at all from the Asia-Pacific region. I believe that across the region, countries in Asia have been calmed by that. They’ve believed that the US has been an underpinning strategic force for stability for many, many decades now. And at the same time, they’re looking for America and China together, through regional diplomacy and regional institutions together to carve out a common future together in East Asia. And that’s what we want in Australia back as well.

JOURNALIST: Well, you are going to support this refocus, if we can call that, by the US military. There’s going to be a new base there. China wasn’t necessarily happy about that, were they?

MR RUDD: Well, the Chinese have opposed US military alliances in Asia since Adam was a boy.

In particular, since the end of the Cold War what the Chinese have said is that these are vestiges of the Cold War — that is, alliances with Korea, with Japan, with the Philippines, with Thailand, and with Australia, and they are no longer irrelevant.

Well, each of those countries has a somewhat different view to that.

In Australia’s case, I think it’s also important just to recall a few facts here. In the past we’ve had regular training exercises with US marines going back a long time, up to three months at a time at a stretch with 1,500 marines at a time. You know what’s going to change? It’s going to be six months at a time; it’s going to be regular; it’s going to be up to 2,500. So I don’t think we should make a mountain out of a molehill.

And one final point on this — Australia has been an ally of the United States since about a decade before the People’s Republic of China was established, so it’s been around for a long, long time.

JOURNALIST: Are there signs that China is flexing its military, its economic muscle in Asia?

Particularly concerned about offshore resources, underground oil or gas? It would seem that the Philippines and Vietnam are feeling that.

MR RUDD: Well let me say this in support of what China is doing. Its economic muscle in Asia and the world frankly has been a huge underpinning for the global economic recovery after we tipped into the Global Economic Recession only two or three years ago in ‘08-‘09. It’s been a huge force for growth and prosperity in Asia and the countries of Asia genuinely value that.

At the same time there are strategic tensions. We’ve just talked about Taiwan. We’ve seen some blow ups with Japan over islands in the East China Sea and some disagreements in South East Asia over the South China Sea.

On that, however, we saw good progress recently at the East Asian Summit which President Obama, representing the U.S., attended for the first time. And there we saw a good discussion and coming out of that strong diplomacy with South East Asia and China now developing a code of conduct on the future of the handling of the South China Sea question. So yes, there have been tensions. Yes, there have been difficulties. But I see some good diplomacy emerging on this as well.

JOURNALIST: Mr Minister, the military embargo remains in place on Burma but you have decided to lift other sanctions against that regime.

Some wonder whether it’s too early, that the election hasn’t been held, the military junta has not really shown its hand.

MR RUDD: Well this was always going to be a difficult judgement and I respect the views of others.

Now there was an election of sorts in Burma about a year ago.

We saw the formation for the first so-called civilian government and many people were sceptical about it initially.

I formed the judgement having had some discussions with Aung San Suu Kyi that it was smart and wise to go in and meet the new government, and I did that in June last year. I think I was probably the first Western foreign minister to go in.

I spoke with President Thein Sein at some length, formed the judgement that they were serious about doing something on political reform, and I’ve sought to convey that message to our friends, partners and allies around the world.

Sure, the military is still very strong but what we have seen is the release now of a large number of political prisoners including a new batch, I believe, out today.

We’ve seen the regularisation of electoral laws. Aung San Suu Kyi will now be contesting parliamentary elections in one of 48 seats up for a vote on the 1st of April.

Frankly none of these things were seen as within the remote realms of possibility even six to twelve months ago.

So we’ve got to encourage the civilian government in what it’s doing, because we don’t want to send the message to the Burmese military that all this is in vain.

JOURNALIST: Aung San Suu Kyi, is she confident that things are going ahead? Does she want to once again return to a leadership role there? What is her outlook on the situation in her country?

MR RUDD: Well I never like to speak reflecting the views of another person and I, like Hillary Clinton, whose diplomacy by the way on Burma I respect and admire, and the US Secretary of State and I talk about these matters quite often, I don’t like talking about the views of Aung San Suu Kyi in her absence — she can speak for herself. But let me say this — we in Australia have never taken steps forward unless we have been in very close collaborative contact with her and other leaders of the democratic movement in Burma. Therefore we think we’ve got it about right, calibrating our responses.

It’s always going to be a challenge of two steps forward, and sometimes one step back. But against where we’ve been with Burma for decades, this is a bright time for real opportunity.

We’ve got to maximise the chances of diplomacy working, give the Burmese people a chance — 50 million people, worst living standards in Asia, we in Australia are their second largest aid partners. Give them a chance for a decent future and you never know your luck, we might actually come through this and welcome Burma back into the community of democracies.

JOURNALIST: Australia’s Foreign Minister Kevin Rudd, sir, thank you very much for taking some of your valuable time tonight and talking with us.

MR RUDD: Thanks so much for having us on your program.

ENDS

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