Transcript of interview with Neil Mitchell, 3AW Mornings program

Subjects: Korean peninsula

Transcript, E&OE

24 November 2010

NEIL MITCHELL: Good morning. Now if you believe some commentators, the world could be on the verge of war — and that means potentially nuclear war. Certainly, both sides we're talking about in this Korean tension have got nuclear capability or access to nuclear capability through their supporters. By the most generous analysis, by the most optimistic analysis, this country, Australia, is in the middle of what's happening in Korea. It can affect us in all manner of ways.

It affects our region. It affects our economy. It affects our security. And potentially if this erupts we are potentially a target. Now there are many questions around this. Nobody knows where it's going. Certainly the tensions have been building for a while. One key question is whether the North Korean leadership is as unhinged, as mad, as everybody seems to suggest — and if it is what it's capable of doing.

But it's also the question about whether they do have nuclear capacity which we don't know. They're certainly working on it. Whether they've got missiles with the capability to reach well into the region — including this country — with whatever warheads they're carrying.

Now that's the background. That's how important it is. But don't underestimate it either — it is very very very tense. The Korean war's never ended. And this really just proves it. We stand firmly, Australia stands firmly with the south, and we're in the middle of it. Now a few moments ago I spoke to the Foreign Minister Kevin Rudd in our Canberra studio.

He had a series of meetings. He's very busy. So I agreed to pre-record an interview — something I do rarely.

So a few moments ago I spoke with Kevin Rudd.

KEVIN RUDD: Good morning Neil.

NEIL MITCHELL: The world says we've got a very tense situation. Is it potentially dangerous for Australia?

KEVIN RUDD: When we're dealing with North Korea, Neil, it's always potentially dangerous. What is dangerous is the fact that we've had three significant events in several months. First, of course, was the sinking of the South Korean naval vessel with the loss of nearly 50 lives by North Korea. The second is only a week or so ago, reports from the United States that the North Koreans are in the business of uranium enrichment to add to their nuclear weapons program. And then thirdly this unprovoked artillery attack on a South Korean island yesterday.

Put these things together, this is destabilising. And I'm concerned about any — the impact of any further destabilising acts by the north, given that tensions are now running so high.

NEIL MITCHELL: And how does that relate to Australia directly? It's obviously destabilising for the region. How does it relate to Australia directly?

KEVIN RUDD: Okay, let me put it in two terms for you — the first is, so much of our economic activity in wider east Asia depends on the underlying strategic stability of our region. We're seldom conscious of this — simply because it has been stable. But if you pull the rug from underneath the region then suddenly you send shock waves through the regional economy — and more than 50 per cent of our exports go to north east Asia. That's the first point.

NEIL MITCHELL: Yeah.

KEVIN RUDD: Secondly there is an impact in terms of the long-term development of North Korea's nuclear weapons program. They've been testing missiles, they've been accumulating fissile material, fissile material is a flash way of saying the stuff that goes inside nuclear weapons. Put those two things together over time they've got a capacity to seriously threaten a range of countries across the wider region. That's why what they do is significant. That's why it's important for all countries in the world to be absolutely firm in their response. That's why I've been on the phone overnight to the US assistant secretary of state, the South Korean Foreign Minister, and here in Canberra yesterday with the Japanese Foreign Minister.

NEIL MITCHELL: You referred to their missiles. Do they have the missile capability to reach Australia?

KEVIN RUDD: This is as yet not definitive, Neil, and I'm just being frank with you. There have been reports of testings of North Korean missiles of multiple ranges — so-called short-range missiles, medium-range missiles, and longer-range missiles. What we do know however is that they've got a missile testing program. So that is a concern in itself — but missiles is one thing, that's the delivery vehicle, it's what you put on the end of it that is even more worrying — and that's nuclear warheads or nuclear material or a nuclear weapon of some description.

And that's where the North Koreans for some time have been accumulating, as I've said, the material to go in — this fissile material.

NEIL MITCHELL: Is this, and is North Korea then a significant threat to world peace — and specifically a significant threat to Australia?

KEVIN RUDD: I believe it is a continuing and increasing threat to regional stability, regional peace, and therefore as an extension to the world at large. If you stand back from it all we've got 192 member nations of the United Nations. This regime in North Korea is right out there, just right out there.

NEIL MITCHELL: I was going to ask that. Is it as volatile — we get the impression of it being a volatile, almost lunatic regime. Is it?

KEVIN RUDD: Well one of the most difficult things to do in the business of foreign policy Neil is to understand what causes North Korea to do individual things. Because by any rational measure, the three things I've just mentioned before are just plainly irrational in terms of peace and stability on the Peninsula — Korean Peninsula. But this is where I think our friends in China come in as well. The Chinese have a particular relationship with North Korea going back to the days of the Korean War. I think it's increasingly important for China to bring its influence to bear on the North Korean regime. The simple reason is, they don't seem to be listening to anybody else much.

It's time that they heard a strong voice from Beijing — because this is going to be necessary to try and moderate their behaviour.

NEIL MITCHELL: But will that happen? And we get the impression there's a danger of China lining up behind the north, and the United States and Australia and other countries lining up behind the south.

KEVIN RUDD: Looking carefully at China's statements — both over the sinking of the South Korean naval vessel and this most recent event in the last 24 hours with the North Korean unprovoked artillery bombardment of the South Korean island — the initial statement by the Chinese Foreign Ministry yesterday called for restraint on the part of all parties — that's consistent with the balanced position they sought to take with the sinking of the South Korean naval vessel. But my simple message is this to our friends in Beijing, is that the world now needs China to bring more influence to bear on North Korea.

And we as friends and partners and allies of the United States and both Japan and the Republic of Korea have formal alliance relationships with America, as do we — are watching these events very very closely.

But I believe that under the circumstances, as we know them at the moment, calm responsible and measured responses are underway on the part led by the South Koreans.

What I am concerned about, Neil, to be very blunt, is if the North Koreans have anything else up their sleeve.

NEIL MITCHELL: What potential does that have — if they, if there is another provocative act by the North Koreans.

KEVIN RUDD: Well what I'm concerned about is, you don't have to be a huge historian in international relations to know that when you have a series of acts which are provocative and aggressive, that just elevates tensions. And then if you add to that another provocative act it makes it harder and harder to manage responses.

For a moment if your readers could just put yourself — sorry, if your listeners could just put themselves into the position of, say, President Lee Myung-bak, the — a very good man. He's the President of South Korea. Imagine the domestic political pressure he's under right now having just had a naval vessel sunk by the North Koreans, just having a community on a South Korean island blown apart by a North Korean artillery barrage, the enormous pressure on him to respond.

He's an enormously restrained and careful and considered individual, but if you add to this further North Korean provocative acts, then you've got to be concerned about what then happens in terms of action and reaction.

That's what we're deeply concerned about.

NEIL MITCHELL:  The United States has described as an outrageous act, what the North has done. You've been speaking as you've said to the US and other officials in the past 24 hours. Is that the consensus. Do you agree it's outrageous?

KEVIN RUDD: Yes, absolutely. I spoke overnight with the US Assistant Secretary of State, and that's a common view of the Australian and US governments. It's not just outrageous — it is a fundamental violation of the laws which govern international relations — and is a real threat, as we've discussed earlier in this interview, to peace and security.

These are not idle words that we use. And therefore we are deeply engaged with what is going on, on the peninsula. It's not isolated. They've done this before. Let us hope — as I believe we can — use diplomacy to work our way through this one as well.

But there's been a rash of these in the last several months. And that's what's got people like myself pretty concerned.

NEIL MITCHELL: Thank you very much for your time.

There are many other things I'd like to ask you about, but somehow they don't seem all that important — to talk about caucus minutes and other issues when we're talking about world peace.

KEVIN RUDD: I think that's a right call of the priorities, Neil. You can talk about those some other day. But the bottom line is the job of any government, any Australian Government, its number one responsibility, is the national security of our country. And as Foreign Minister I've got some responsibilities in that regard. And that's what we're head down tail up working on today.

NEIL MITCHELL: Thank you very much for your time.

KEVIN RUDD: Thanks Neil.

NEIL MITCHELL: In our Canberra studio, the Foreign Minister Kevin Rudd.

Okay. It's 17 to nine. You can hear in his voice there in that — that's only a few minutes ago — the concern. The situation is changing. We'll be crossing to South Korea later in the morning, we'll take some further advice. Love to hear from anybody who's ever worked in South Korea or has any connection with South Korea. We do a lot of business with South Korea.

The — I've met a few. My son had some Korean friends as he was growing up. And it was fascinating to talk to them about just the tension that they lived within South Korea.

END

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