The Inaugural Monash Asia Public Lecture
22 August 2007, Melbourne
Australian Foreign Policy Today and Tomorrow
Introduction
Thank you Professor Marika Vicziany; Professor Stephanie Fahey; distinguished guests ladies and gentlemen.
It is a great pleasure to be here this afternoon to deliver the inaugural Monash Asia Public Lecture on the topic of “Australian foreign policy today and tomorrow”.
Monash University has made a remarkable contribution to Australia’s connections with Asia over the past 46 years. I want to pay tribute to the many academics here at Monash who have taught and continue to teach young Australians the languages, history, culture, politics, economics and more of the diverse countries of Asia.
And I want to pay tribute to Monash University’s pioneering development of links with Asia. Monash established the first foreign university branch campus in Malaysia nearly ten years ago – now a thriving campus of distinction in teaching and research.
Our relations with the countries of Asia are one part – an important part, a key part – of our relationship with the outside world. But our relations with Asia do not take place in a vacuum.
Australia has always had global interests. We have been an international trading nation since the earliest days of our history. We have had and continue to maintain deep and enduring relations with countries near and far.
And Australia has always been ready to stand up for what is right in international politics. We are prepared to stand up for the values we believe in.
Australians have fought against aggression in two world wars. We played our part in confronting totalitarianism during the Cold War. We are doing our part now in the struggle against extremist terrorism.
During peace time we have strengthened relations with our neighbours and friends. We have made a significant contribution to the international order. We have helped small countries gain their independence and build their government institutions, and we have worked to share the benefits of prosperity across the globe.
The world has changed enormously since Australia’s federation in 1901 but the fundamentals of international politics have not changed.
We are sometimes told that in a borderless, globalised world nation states no longer matter. But I do not accept this idea. Because when we face threats like transnational crime and terrorism, strong nation states are more important than ever. Only effective and robust states – I would argue democratic and free liberal states – are equipped to meet the range of challenges we face, and survive and thrive.
The importance of effective, robust states with strong democratic foundations is a key lesson of history and one of the themes I want to highlight today.
While my theme in this speech is “Australian foreign
policy today and tomorrow”, I think it is vital not only to
look at the present and the future, but also to look at the lessons
we have learned from the past.
The rise of new powers
Stable relations between the major and emerging powers in the Asia Pacific region and beyond – such as we have now – are crucial to Australia’s security and prosperity. As China and India continue their remarkable growth, strategic weight will shift to Asia. New powers are rising.
First, there is China. The economic growth in China for the past 30 years has been stunning. Hundreds of millions of people have been lifted out of poverty. Economic reforms unleashed the entrepreneurial drive of the Chinese people.
At the same time, China’s Communist Party has transformed its international outlook. China does not seek to export revolution to the world in the 21st century, it wants to export goods and it wants a stable regional and global environment to do this. Its foreign policy reflects this. China is becoming increasingly active on the international political stage.
Less than 15 years ago the ASEAN Regional Forum – the Asian region’s only meeting of foreign ministers dedicated to security issues – held its first meeting. China was a reluctant participant in that first meeting. Today, China is not only an active participant in the ARF, it is actually seeking to shape its agenda.
As China grows it needs resources to fuel its economy. And this drive for resources, particularly energy resources, is an increasing influence on China’s foreign policy.
And as China emerges, it will need to shoulder the responsibility of being a major power. There are some positive signs.
For instance, without China’s involvement, efforts to resolve the North Korean nuclear issue would not have come as far as they have. We will continue to work with China to encourage it to take a responsible role.
India, too, is growing economically and is seeking more influence in the world. India has turned outwards after decades of looking inwards. India is now firmly focused on pursuing its national interest and prosperity and security for its people. India is beginning to contribute to the security of the world, for instance by sending a humanitarian naval mission to assist tsunami victims in Indonesia's Aceh Province in 2004.
The demand generated by India’s growing middle class is helping power world economic growth. India’s own economic growth has been an impressive nine per cent per annum in recent years.
India’s enmeshment with global markets is encouraging it to take the view that it has a stake in supporting and maintaining the international order. And India has proven that open, democratic government is compatible with both political stability and rapid economic development.
So in the 21st century, two of the world’s oldest civilisations are two of its newest powers. Both are engaging more with the international community. And both are seeking to regain what they see as their rightful place among the leading nations of the world.
The question for everyone else is: “How do we handle these two giants?”
The answer for Australia is, in some ways, straightforward. We must continue to work to further build our bilateral relationships with those two countries.
Our relationship with China has transformed over the past decade. The trading relationship has recorded incredible growth – two-way merchandise trade grew from less than 8 billion dollars in 1996/97 to 50 billion dollars in 2006/07.
China will soon be our largest trading partner, although Japan will remain our largest export market by far.
Our national leaders and government ministers meet frequently.
At the officials level we have a range of dialogues. Australian officials meet regularly with their Chinese counterparts to discuss everything from the Pacific island countries to human rights and regional security. And we are negotiating a free trade agreement with China.
Australia and China do not always agree on issues. But we can now discuss our differences. There is a new depth and maturity to our relationship.
We are adding new depth and elements to our relationship with India all the time. From a low base, our cooperation on issues from counter terrorism to United Nations reform is growing.
And our economic relationship is booming. Ten years ago India’s share of our total international merchandise trade was only around one per cent. Now it is around three times that and growing quickly. India is our fastest growing major export market.
Both Australia and India have realised that we have a lot to offer each other. The more we cooperate on security and defence and in trade and investment, the more important we become to each other.
As new powers emerge, other major powers have a crucial role to play. How the United States and Japan deal with the emerging powers is crucial for all of us in the Asia Pacific region.
The United States will remain for the foreseeable future the world’s pre-eminent military and economic power.
Australia’s relationship with the United States has never been stronger. Our alliance with the United States remains the bedrock of our security. And the ties between us are deep.
The links we have to the United States are based on shared values. We are both liberal democracies and share a belief that free markets are the best way to deliver prosperity.
And because we have the same ideas on these big questions, we are natural allies.
Australia’s close relationship with the United States gives us additional weight in the region. Our relationship with the United States contributes to regional stability. We want to see the United States continue to be politically, strategically and economically engaged in the Asia Pacific region.
The United States has invested enormous effort in developing its relationship with China in recent years. China and the United States both realise how much they depend on each other economically. I am convinced that both the United States and China want a stable, mutually beneficial relationship.
The United States has been developing its relationship with India too. Most notably, the United States and Indian governments have recently concluded negotiations on the text of a civil nuclear cooperation agreement.
This deal – while yet to be ratified – would establish the framework for civil nuclear cooperation between the two countries. It recognises India’s strong record of not allowing nuclear technology to spread beyond its borders. While India is not a member of the nuclear non-proliferation treaty, the US-India initiative will help to bring India more fully into the non-proliferation mainstream. Under the initiative India has committed to separate its civil and military nuclear facilities, and expand the application of International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) safeguards.
The other existing power that is of crucial importance, particularly for Australia, is Japan. Not only is it one of our most important economic relationships, we have added new depth to our strategic relationship in recent years.
We would like to see Japan taking a wider international leadership role commensurate with its economic weight. Japan could play an important role by working alongside other key powers to share the burden of sustaining and strengthening world order.
That is why Australian and Japanese troops worked together in Iraq. And this year our Prime Ministers signed a Joint Declaration on Security Cooperation to provide a basis for even closer engagement across a wide range of areas.
I want to make the point that we have been able to build our relationships with all of the major and emerging powers in the Asia Pacific – the United States, Japan, China and India. Strong bilateral links between countries are insurance against instability.
Counter-terrorism
Emerging powers present one challenge for us to manage in the 21st century. But a more immediate challenge is the fight against terrorism.
We learned from the 20th Century that appeasement does not work against totalitarianism. Nazism and Soviet Communism were ideologies that preached exclusion and domination, and sought our destruction. They were completely at odds with the pluralism and tolerance that are the bedrock of our values.
We face a similar struggle today against ideologically-driven Islamist terrorism.
We have to tackle terrorist groups, particularly Al Qaeda, robustly with all the tools at our disposal, including the force of arms. We need to use our diplomatic, intelligence and police cooperation, and we need to prevent Afghanistan and Iraq becoming havens for terrorists. We should never forget that Al Qaeda used Afghanistan under the Taliban as a haven to train, plot, and plan for the September 11 attacks on the United States.
That is a major reason why we have to continue to support the new government in Iraq. Iraq still faces enormous challenges – it has to rebuild its economy, rebuild its government structure and it has to overcome the insurgency.
We owe it to the people of Iraq to support them. And the Australian Government has called on the government in Iraq to do more to bring an end to the violence.
I would argue that it is also in our interest to help Iraq. If the coalition forces were withdrawn from Iraq in circumstances perceived of as defeat, it would be a boost to Al Qaeda and other extremist groups.
In Asia, we are working with the Philippines and Indonesia to strengthen further our already extensive cooperation on counter-terrorism. The Jakarta Centre for Law Enforcement Cooperation (JCLEC) is jointly managed by Australia and Indonesia. It has already trained over 2000 regional law enforcement officials to combat terrorism and other transnational crimes.
I am pleased that we have had some successes. We have been able to disrupt terrorist groups. But this will be a generational fight and it will not be won by the force of arms alone.
Part of what we are fighting against is the terrorists’ ideas and their ideology. Their goal is to replace our way of life with theirs. They want to make people believe that different faiths and beliefs are not capable of living together. They want to turn people against each other so we all retreat into our own tribes. Their ideal state is like Afghanistan under the Taliban – cut off from the world and brutally ruled with no freedom for its citizens.
So we have a duty to respond by articulating and reinforcing the shared values which unite, rather than divide, all people – values such as tolerance, pluralism and a respect for human dignity.
But governments cannot do this alone – in fact the key messages need to come from the community.
We need voices from across the globe and from all backgrounds – religious and secular – to spread the message that tolerance and living together offers a better future than exclusion and conflict. We need to win the argument by showing that what the extremists want is self-defeating and offers no hope.
In 2004 Indonesia’s Foreign Minister, Hassan Wirajuda, and I launched the first of a series of regional Interfaith Dialogues.
We bring together religious figures from around Asia to discuss what religious faiths have in common, not what divides them. I see these dialogues as an integral part of our effort to rebut the extremist message and to blunt its appeal within vulnerable sections of the community.
Our relationship with Indonesia goes a long way beyond counter-terrorism work, but the strength of our relationship is very clearly seen in how well we work together on this issue.
Indonesia is the country with the world’s largest Muslim population and it is the world’s third largest democracy. And Indonesia is on the front line in the fight against terrorism. Australia and Indonesia have a clear understanding on this issue – we have a mutual interest in doing all we can to reduce and eliminate this threat.
After all, in the first Bali bombing, 202 people died including,
of course, 88 Australians and 38 Indonesians.
Fragile States and State Building
Some of the challenges we face are new – a global terrorist movement that utilises the internet and modern telecommunications to plan and carry out its attacks. But in many ways, how we confront these challenges is not.
To deal with global problems, we need strong states. We need states that are effectively run. We need states with institutions that are accountable to their citizens. Because these states – transparent states with a strong democratic foundation – are the most robust in the long-term.
Failing or fragile states run the risk of becoming havens for those seeking to avoid international scrutiny and attention – as Al Qaeda does in the borderlands of Afghanistan.
In a globalised world, Australia’s security interests are increasingly affected by lawlessness and disorder in other states.
So assistance to fragile states is of crucial importance. Australia wants to look around its near neighbourhood and to the wider world and see strong, stable, prosperous states. To get to that end, we tailor our development assistance program to focus on giving countries the tools to help themselves.
One key focus of our development assistance program is good governance. By governance we mean helping states to build strong institutions and democratic foundations.
We promote respect for the rule of law, for minority rights and for due processes of government. It is about ensuring election processes are fair and transparent and ensuring that elected governments govern responsibly.
We have seen in our own region the dangers of poor governance. In Solomon Islands, governance collapsed. The resulting lawlessness brought normal daily life to a halt. People could not go about their business and the economy faltered badly.
Australia, along with partners from the Pacific Islands Forum, established the Regional Assistance Mission to Solomon Islands (RAMSI) to restore order and help rebuild government structures and systems. Solomon Islands still faces challenges today, but it is a safer place, the economy is rebounding and national governance institutions are being rebuilt.
In East Timor we have seen a new country trying to establish itself. And we have seen the importance of working to get the basic structures and processes of governance right. East Timor has enormous potential because of its oil and gas reserves. But it will need to have a strong, transparent governance system to ensure its wealth is managed wisely.
The peaceful conduct of East Timor’s elections was a great sign of the people’s desire to play a constructive role in their country’s future. But unrest and violence since is a real cause for concern. We need all political leaders in East Timor to accept the outcome of the democratic process, refrain from violence and work together to allow East Timor to move forward.
Global Issues
Fragile states highlight the need for us to have a global foreign policy – a foreign policy that reflects the breadth of our interests.
And our strong relationships with key partners both in Asia and beyond leaves us well-placed to deal with any challenges.
There are two global challenges I would like to highlight that are of crucial importance to Asia and our foreign policy towards Asia – preventing the spread of weapons of mass destruction and tackling climate change.
Weapons of Mass Destruction
Australia has been at the forefront of international efforts to prevent the further spread of nuclear weapons.
We continue to be one of the leading advocates of International Atomic Energy Agency safeguards. We played a prominent role in negotiating the IAEA’s Additional Protocol on strengthened safeguards, which significantly improves the Agency’s capacity to detect undeclared nuclear material and activities.
We were the driving force behind getting the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty adopted by the United Nations, and have recently completed a two-year term coordinating international efforts to promote entry into force of the treaty.
But we still face challenges. In Asia, the greatest nuclear threat comes from North Korea’s development of nuclear weapons.
Australia has been working closely with the countries involved in the Six-Party Talks to persuade North Korea to give up its nuclear weapons program.
I have visited North Korea twice myself. I met the previous North Korean Foreign Minister many times and I met the new Foreign Minister just a few weeks ago in Manila. And I have made the point to the North Koreans that their pursuit of nuclear weapons actually undermines their country’s security. If they gave up their nuclear weapons and allowed full inspection by international authorities, Australia and other countries would be ready to develop our relationship.
It is heartening to see the recent progress in the North Korean nuclear issue. I hope that North Korea will continue to implement its obligations under the deals that have been reached.
But North Korea should also do more to improve its relations with its neighbours.
I hope that the summit meeting between the leaders of North and South Korea – now delayed until October because of the unfortunate floods in North Korea – produces some real breakthroughs on the nuclear issue.
North Korea must also recognise the importance of constructive relations with Japan, and must realise that it will need to resolve the issue of abductions of Japanese nationals.
A key element of the danger posed by states like North Korea – and, potentially, Iran – developing nuclear weapons capability is that it increases the chance that the technology and materials to make nuclear weapons will spread even further or that they could be traded or leak to others – perhaps even to non-state groups. The threat of the spread of nuclear weapons is one of the greatest dangers of our time and we must work hard to prevent it.
Climate Change
The other global challenge we face is climate change. And if we want to solve the problem of climate change, we have to involve all of the major emitters, including the booming economies of Asia.
Australia’s greenhouse gas emissions account for around one and a half per cent of total global emissions.
To put it another way, if Australia completely shut down all of its greenhouse gas emitting activities – from power generation to farming – the reduction in global greenhouse gas emissions would be minimal. Increasing emissions from China would more than account for the reduction in only nine months.
We need to address the challenge of climate change, but we need to do so in a way that brings all of the major emitters on board and does not sacrifice our national interest for no gain.
We are working in a number of ways to address this problem internationally.
In the multilateral arena we are encouraging the United Nations to deal effectively with climate change. I have called for new negotiations on a global agreement to begin at the United Nations meeting on the Framework Convention on Climate Change that will take place in Bali in December.
And we are working in the Asia Pacific region, too. The Prime Minister has put climate change on the agenda for the APEC Leaders Meeting in Sydney the week after next. Given that APEC economies account for around 60 per cent of global energy demand, the meeting is an opportunity for us to shape the debate in response to climate change.
We have also established new groups to deal with the issue. Early last year Australia hosted the first meeting of the Asia Pacific Partnership on Clean Development and Climate – the AP6.
The AP6 brings Australia together with China, India, Japan, Korea and the United States to spur the development of technological solutions to climate change. It brings government and private sector representatives together to share experiences. We will need technological solutions to manage climate change and government has a role to play in supporting development of those solutions.
One further element of our approach is a focus on deforestation as a cause of greenhouse gas emissions. Deforestation in the developing world accounts for around 20 per cent of global greenhouse gas emissions. We have established the Global Initiative on Forests and Climate and will use it to work with countries like Indonesia to manage their forests and reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
And, the last element of our approach is to work bilaterally with key partners.
With China, for example, we have a clean coal working group that will develop new technologies and encourage their adoption. Australia is the largest exporter of coal and China is the world’s largest consumer.
As long as the world relies on cheap and plentiful supplies of coal to generate cheap electricity, clean coal technologies will be an important part of the global response to climate change.
Conclusion
One goal of foreign policy is to make sure that your country is well-placed to meet the challenges of tomorrow. To do this, we have to remember the key lessons of history.
For Australia, this means building our relationships with key countries in Asia and beyond. We have strengthened our relationship with the United States, we have strengthened our relations with the emerging giants China and India, and our relationships with key partners like Indonesia and Japan have new depth to them.
Our relationships with the countries of Southeast Asia are strong. We cooperate on counter-terrorism and, along with New Zealand, we are negotiating a free trade agreement with the ten-member ASEAN group.
The strength of our relationships and our flexible approach to finding solutions means we are well placed to deal with the challenges we face today: the shifting distribution of global power, counter-terrorism, assisting fragile states, preventing the spread of weapons of mass destruction and climate change.
I would like to leave you with one thought this afternoon.
Asia is going through a unique historical transition. It has two emerging giants – China and India. It has the world’s second-largest economy – Japan – that is taking on a higher international profile. And it has many states transforming themselves economically and politically.
Australia has strong bilateral relationships across the region and beyond. And we have robust institutions that let us meet any challenges with confidence.
Australia is well-positioned not only to deal with the changes, but to make the most out of them.
Thank you.