Introduction

I am very pleased to be a guest of the Queensland Press Club and to talk about the future of Iraq, which is set to regain full authority in just three weeks from now.

This is an historic time for all Iraqis and the international community.

Iraq's transition from tyranny to democratic self-rule will be one of the most significant strategic developments of this decade.

The Iraqi people have a clear plan before them to achieve this transition…

…and are taking responsibility for shaping their country's future.

But we have only arrived at this position because of the intensive efforts and sacrifice of the Coalition in close cooperation with the Iraqi people.

The Coalition has removed once and for all the threat of Saddam Hussein's weapons of mass destruction and his brutal regime.

It is now supporting Iraqi efforts to bring stable representative government to a country ruined by three decades of tyranny.

Australia is proud of its continuing role in the Coalition's strategy for Iraq's rehabilitation.

The Coalition's strategy throughout has been to provide adequate conditions - security, basic services and economic development - to allow the Iraqis to determine their future.

• We are focused on a return to full Iraqi authority.

• We strongly support Iraq's efforts to establish democratic representative government and rebuild its institutions.

• We are helping Iraq establish stability and security, revive its economy and give its people a higher standard of living.

Today, momentum is building strongly in Iraq towards 30 June.

The path ahead will undoubtedly be bumpy, with setbacks and unexpected twists and turns…

…but neither we nor the Iraqis will be deterred by violence and terror.

In the words of Iraq's interim President, Sheikh Yawar, appointed just a week ago:

"…Iraqis look forward to being granted full sovereignty … to enable us to rebuild a free independent, democratic and federal unified homeland".

Looking forward

It is time for all members of the international community to look to the future, not to perpetuate the divisions of the past.

The stakes for the Iraqi people and the international community are too high for responsible international players to deny support to Iraq's democratic development at this critical juncture.

We must ask ourselves what the consequences would be if we were to cut and run from the violent campaign waged by terrorists and those Iraqis clinging to the past.

To cut and run from Iraq, as the ALP would have Australia do, would be the height of irresponsibility - and a fundamental betrayal of Australia's values and national interests.

Proponents of this view would have Australia abandon the Iraqi people to the mercy of terrorists.

They would have us, as Libya's foreign minister Dr Shalgam put to me recently, condemn Iraq to becoming another Somalia.

The consequences would be catastrophic not just for Iraq but for the entire Middle East and the world at large.

For terrorists have made Iraq a frontline in their unholy war.

To abandon the Iraqis now would deliver the terrorists a massive victory that would spur them on to greater evil.

Now is not the time to be weak and abandon our international responsibilities.

Now is the time to be strong, resolute and forward-looking.

Ladies and gentlemen

There can be no question that the vast majority of Iraqis want to move forward…

…not back to the oppression and suffering of the Saddam era.

Saddam was a belligerent and evil dictator - as is evident in the remains of 300,000 people estimated to be buried in mass graves.

He subjected Iraqis to debilitating wars with Iran and Kuwait.

His economic mismanagement, corruption and profligate spending on arms, including WMD, led his people into poverty.

He persistently refused to comply with some 17 mandatory UN Security Council resolutions to verifiably terminate his weapons of mass destruction and long-range missile programs.

The work of the Iraq Survey Group shows Saddam continued to pursue WMD and had no intention of forgoing his ambitions.

All we have learnt from the ISG since the war shows that military action was the only way the international community could be assured Saddam would never again use WMD.

As they face the challenges of transition, Iraqis need reassurance that the clock will not be turned back to tyranny…

…that the momentum of national recovery will not be derailed by the campaign of violence and intimidation…

…and that the international community will stand with the Iraqi people through this difficult period.

The Coalition has sought to prepare Iraqis for the handover.

It has facilitated consultations between political, community and religious groups.

It has assisted local elections and given Iraqis unprecedented political and religious freedoms.

These activities have fostered Iraq's civil society and helped prepare Iraqis to take responsibility for their future.

Indeed, Iraqis naturally want to take control of their own destiny and build a democratic future for all Iraqis.

We should not for one moment underestimate the will and capabilities of the Iraqi people to achieve their goals.

Iraqis - initially through the Interim Governing Council and now the Interim Iraqi Government - are setting a clear agenda for the future.

On announcement of the interim Iraqi government a week ago, the Governing Council chose immediately to dissolve itself…

…ahead of the 30 June deadline for the transfer of authority…

…and in favour of the interim President Yawar and the new government led by Prime Minister Iyad Allawi - whom, incidentally, I met in Baghdad a year ago.

The Transitional Administrative Law agreed by the Governing Council in March followed extensive consultation among Iraqis.

Significantly, this law enshrines basic human rights for all Iraqis - the same civil and political rights we take for granted.

It also sets a clear timetable for the transition to representative government over the next 18 months...

…the handover of authority on 30 June…

…a first round of national elections by 31 January 2005 for an Iraqi Transitional Government - whose main task is the drafting of a new constitution to be put to referendum in late 2005…

…and plans for elections by January 2006 to establish a fully representative Iraqi Government.

This agenda reminds us that most Iraqis want consultation and representative government through elections.

Achieving each step in the timetable will bring unique challenges for the members of Iraq's interim government…

…and finalising a new constitution will be crucial among these.

There will be a need to accommodate a range of legitimate interests - and Iraq's other complexities - in a functional and harmonious structure.

Iraqis will have to compromise with each other and put aside old divisions to develop a shared vision for their nation's future.

Security and stability

Ladies and gentlemen

We fully recognise the enduring solutions in Iraq will be political and civic, not military.

But we cannot underestimate the security challenges ahead of us.

As 30 June approaches those opposed to a democratic Iraq will redouble their attempts to intimidate the Iraqi people and the international community.

We cannot let these violent attacks dictate the agenda.

There are serious steps that will need to be taken to deal with those propagating violence in Iraq.

Terrorists are using Iraq to wage their war against the west and moderate Islam.

They know what is at stake in Iraq. And so they have made Iraq a frontline in the war against terrorism.

It must be understood that Al Qaeda and their ilk are not seeking a bargain or compromise with the West or mainstream Islam - in Iraq or elsewhere.

They seek to impose their will and bleak fundamentalist, pre-modern world view by whichever means they can.

Others, typically former regime supporters, seek a return to dictatorship - but their tools are also the methods of terror.

A free and democratic Iraq is anathema to these people.

In the end it is the Iraqis who must assume prime responsibility for law enforcement and security in their country.

And some 200,000 Iraqi security forces personnel have already been mobilised - including the army and the police force.

The Coalition has rightly been giving priority to building up Iraqi police and other security forces, and engaging Iraqis in decision-making on security and defence matters.

Australian defence force personnel in Iraq are helping to train Iraq's army and navy.

AFP specialists have begun training Iraqi police in Jordan.

And Australian defence civilians have been helping set up new defence planning and new national security policy architecture.

It will take time to bring Iraq's security services to full strength.

In the meantime the multinational force -comprising troops from more than 30 countries - will work in partnership with the Iraqi interim government and the Iraqi security forces.

The draft UN Security Council resolution - and Iraqi leaders - envisage that the multinational force will remain in Iraq post 30 June, at the consent of the Iraqi authorities.

Rehabilitating and rebuilding Iraq

Ladies and gentlemen

The Coalition's rehabilitation strategy focuses on restoration of essential services, economic revitalisation and re-building Iraq's administrative capacities.

The Coalition, working with the Iraqi people, has already made considerable progress.

Over half Iraq's 26 ministries are under Iraqi control, including the agriculture portfolio, in which Australia played a major role.

Iraq's economy grew strongly last year - albeit off a low base.

Inflation is declining, oil production is back near pre-war levels (and generating much revenue given current prices).

Economic governance is on track as Iraqis recognise a private sector-led recovery will need more market-oriented policies.

The Coalition has created around 400,000 jobs for Iraqis in the last 12 months.

Small and medium enterprises are expanding rapidly and state-owned enterprises are adjusting to life without subsidies.

Iraq has a new currency, an independent Central Bank and new banking laws.

It has achieved observer status at the World Trade Organisation - Iraqi officials are now in Canberra undertaking WTO training.

Other aspects of life are improving: Iraq's judicial system is hearing civil and criminal cases.

240 Iraqi hospitals and more than 1200 health care centres are operating. Health care funding has risen from US$16 million under Saddam to US$950 million in 2004.

Infant mortality rates have fallen; vaccinations for preventable diseases are available to infants, children and mothers.

Iraqi schools are operating normally, with new teaching systems, new text books and vastly better pay for teachers.

Peak capacity for electricity generation is back to 90 per cent of pre-war levels and more evenly distributed - although attacks against infrastructure continue.

Communications are being restored, with over one million telephone subscribers and 340,000 mobile phones in use.

Building international support

Ladies and gentlemen

Expanding the involvement of the international community is a crucial next step if we are to further the gains already made.

At the core will be the operations of the United Nations, its agencies and the international financial institutions.

We are pleased the UN has resumed its important work in Iraq in the lead-up to the transition.

Australia has always supported a significant UN role in Iraq.

We commend UN Special Representative Mr Brahimi for his work with Iraqis to select the interim government.

Through its new resolution the Security Council has an opportunity to resume a right and proper role to deal with a key issue of international peace and security.

Through the resolution the UN Assistance Mission in Iraq will assist Iraq's transition, including preparing for elections, and coordination of international efforts on Iraq's rehabilitation.

We know from experience, including in Southeast Asia, that the UN has significant expertise in these areas, particularly elections.

Australia has already committed $6 million to a UN trust fund for the UN's work on Iraq's forthcoming elections.

The World Bank and IMF have a critical role in helping Iraq establish sound economic policies and governance.

But Iraq's transition will require more than the good-will of the multilateral institutions - individual countries will also need to get behind the Iraqi people.

Already, international donors have provided significant funds for the rehabilitation and rebuilding of Iraq.

Indeed, the donor commitment and objectives are on a scale akin to the Marshall Plan that revitalised post-war Europe.

Donors pledged some US$34 billion at the Madrid conference last year, including a US pledge of US$18 billion. Major contributions from Iraq's own region - the UAE, Kuwait, Qatar and Saudi Arabia - have been particularly welcome.

More effort will however be required.

30 June provides an opportunity for nations, including those opposed to the war, to put the past behind them and help the Iraqis realise their future.

Conclusion

Ladies and gentlemen

The situation in Iraq remains complex and difficult.

But there is a clear path ahead for the future of Iraq - and Iraqis are firmly taking the lead.

The Government remains committed to contributing in areas Australia can add value to the next phase of Iraq's transition.

We have been looking forward from the outset.

In contrast, the Opposition's 'cut and run' policy on Iraq shows they are still looking backwards…

…struggling with the reality that they opposed a just war that removed an evil dictator whom they would have left in place.

While the Opposition is fixated on academic points of difference such status of occupying powers (when it knows we are not one), the Government has been getting on with the job at hand.

We have committed over $120 million to Iraq's rehabilitation.

Our assistance - notably on agriculture, donor coordination and economic governance - has made a real difference.

ADF training of Iraqi army and navy personnel and AFP training of Iraq's police will help ensure Iraq's future security.

Our plan for continued contributions is the right thing to do.

We are staying the course to help a free Iraq establish democracy and a better standard of living for all its people…

…and in doing so, we are helping to enhance stability and security in a strategically important region of world.

Ladies and gentlemen

Given the many issues to hand as Iraq approaches 30 June, the Government has decided to publish a paper setting out the path ahead for Iraq…

…the path ahead as the Australian Government, an active coalition member, sees it.

The paper connects the current debate to the fate of the Iraqis.

It puts the issues in their profoundly important historical context.

It makes clear the Coalition's aims; it dispels any 'hidden agendas'.

And it calls for all to ensure the perpetrators of violence do not hijack the future of the Iraqi people.

Ladies and gentlemen

The transfer of full authority to Iraqis on 30 June will be an historic day for Iraqis and for the international community.

We cannot predict with any precision what the future holds.

But Iraqis have rejected the tyranny of the past. And now they are forging a new and better future.

Their efforts warrant nothing less than the full support of the international community.

For the success or failure of this noble and just cause will bear on us all.

Thank you.