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Speech
Opening address by the Hon Alexander Downer, MP, Minister for Foreign Affairs,
at the UNSW/ADFA Conference on The Asia-Pacific Region: Policy challenges for the coming decade
Canberra, 22 August 2001
Gaining a Place: Integration in the Asia-Pacific
Introduction
It's a real pleasure to speak to you at this important Conference.
I congratulate the School of Politics of the University of New South Wales, here at the Australian Defence Force Academy, for taking this initiative. And I welcome the close association with the Shanghai Institute for International Studies. I understand the Institute was instrumental in developing the theme for the Conference.
Policy challenges for the Asia-Pacific region, of course, is a theme that offers a wide range of possible topics for a Foreign Minister to address. Today, I want to talk about a vitally important challenge in the coming decade and beyond: the positive engagement of China in the region.
I want to pursue three main ideas. First, I want to emphasise the need to find ways to integrate rising powers peacefully into the international system.
Second, I want to explore the roles of the United States, as the world's superpower, Japan, as a regional and global power, and China, the rising power in the Asia-Pacific.
Third, I want to set out what Australia can do to assist the positive engagement of China.
Gaining a place in the world order
Rising great countries historically have sought, naturally, a position of greater power and prestige in the world order. Integrating those rising great powers into the established world order has been a recurring theme in the history of global security.
In the last century, Germany, Japan and, more recently, Russia, in turn have been integrated into an international system dominated early on by Great Britain, and then by the United States.
In the first half of the 20th century, each of these rising powers attempted to establish, primarily by military means, exclusive zones of influence through dictatorial political regimes. Each was eventually overcome by coalitions of free trading democracies, led by the United States.
That this was done at such great cost highlights the tragic results of failing to ensure that changing power relativities are effectively managed. It also highlights how important it is to ensure that differences between nations do not lead unnecessarily to conflict.
In the second part of the last century, rising powers gained their place in the world order through peaceful integration into the international system. Europe's historic process of integration transformed the nature of inter-state relations there. Germany is a central and constructive player in Europe. In the Asia-Pacific region, under the US strategic umbrella, Japan has demonstrated that it too is a central and constructive regional and global power. Russia, of course, is still coming to terms with its new status following the break-up of the Soviet Union.
The roles of the United States and Japan
It is easy now, free of the pre-occupations of the Cold War, to overlook the influence of the United States on post-Cold War stability - not least in the Asia-Pacific region. No other country influences the international system in so many ways.
To paraphrase the former senior Pentagon official and academic, Joe Nye, the role of the United States is like oxygen. You might not always notice when it is there. But you notice very quickly when it isn't.
The strategic engagement of the United States, particularly through its web of security alliances, is fundamental to the continued prosperity and stability of the region. US engagement discourages local strategic rivalries. It dissuades adventurism. The US economy is a huge and open market for Asia-Pacific economies, that has been an absolutely essential element in their economic growth. And the United States remains an exemplar of liberal democracy that many would like to emulate.
The United States is strategically pre-eminent because the region - tacitly or otherwise - has accepted and encouraged it to be so. This applies especially to maritime democracies, such as Australia and Japan, which depend fundamentally on a free and open global trading system. It also applies to those that, while not sharing similar democratic ideals, share an interest in maintaining the status quo to prevent the resurgence of historical rivalries.
The US-Japan alliance remains fundamental to regional security. I believe Japan will continue to play a positive and constructive role in the future strategic environment. Australia is comfortable with Japan playing a greater role commensurate with its weight, and at a pace regional players are comfortable with.
It is important though that Japan, through reform, improves its economic performance if it is to maintain its positive influence. We are encouraged by the commitment of the Koizumi government to achieving this. And we are confident about Japan's ability to rise to the challenge.
Of course, despite the US presence, the region still has its tensions. The nation-state remains the basic unit of international relations. And national interest still dominates foreign policy - including in the Asia-Pacific, where traditions of cooperation are weak. Balancing and managing these competing interests is a key policy challenge - for which the United States remains a vital player.
It is clear that the Bush Administration is strongly committed to sustaining and enhancing the US presence in the region. We know the Bush Administration has a genuine interest in the problems the region faces. We are very encouraged by the quality of key people appointed to the Administration. And we are impressed by the strong Asia focus and experience in the Administration.
The role of China
China is a nation with a great heritage and a great future. In the broad sweep of history, it has been powerful for far longer than it has been weak. As I said in my 1999 China oration, it would be a nonsense, and contrary to our interests, to underestimate China's importance. One-fifth of the human race is undergoing rapid and fundamental social and economic change. We cannot afford to ignore this massive transformation.
China has almost 1.3 billion people, increasing each year by some 13 million. The sixth largest economy in the world is projected to double in size by 2010, with annual growth forecasts of 7 to 8 percent. China's impending entry to the WTO can only fuel its growth, with inevitable growth in trade and investment flows, including vis-à-vis the economies of South East Asia.
The role China plays in the Asia-Pacific - more than anything else - will influence the future regional strategic environment. That China is emerging as an influential power in the Asia-Pacific results from - and contributes to - regional prosperity. Linkages with regional economies such as Japan and Korea, and with Australia and South East Asia, are crucial to China's further economic and social development.
It is easy for outsiders to over-look the domestic challenges China's leaders face: reforming China's outdated state owned enterprises; managing the adjustments from WTO accession; building new social security and taxation systems; coping with up to 100 million unemployed 'floating' rural workers; bridging the gap between the booming east and the less developed west; addressing basic health issues like infant mortality, especially in rural areas, or HIV/AIDS. And dealing with the effects of rapid modernisation on the environment.
The big strategic question of the 21st century is not how to contain China, or even to balance it. Such approaches imply that China is inherently a threat purely as a result of its size. And they overestimate the degree to which China can really challenge the United States' pre-eminent position, even assuming that it wished to do so.
Rather, the big strategic question of the 21st century is how to a rising China integrates into the regional and international community. China and its regional neighbours must manage this process in ways that benefit not just China but also the international community.
China's success is a welcome reflection of the success and future potential of the region as a whole. China has already achieved much. It should be recognised as an emerging power. For our part, we hope to see China prosper economically and play a greater regional role.
Challenges and responsibilities for China
China's success, of course, brings with it certain responsibilities. China must pursue its path with respect for the views and sensitivities of others. These should not be mis-read by China as attempts to contain it.
How Beijing manages the Taiwan issue is obviously a key challenge. We understand the importance of reunification to Chinese pride. It is vital to the region that the issue is handled through peaceful dialogue, with sensitivity to the concerns of all sides, and without resort to the use of force.
Overall, there are good reasons to be optimistic about how China will approach its regional role, especially if recent history is any guide. Attempting to redress geo-political grievances now would imperil the regional and domestic environment China needs for continued growth and stability.
China's decision not to devalue its currency played an important stabilising role during the Asian economic crisis. And China and the United States have cooperated to stabilise the situation on the Korean peninsula and encourage the DPRK to engage the world.
Most importantly, there has been welcome progress recently in negotiations on China's accession to the WTO. China's preparedness to pursue WTO membership, despite the painful adjustments required, represents a strategic decision to engage the world, and on the world's terms. There will be no looking back after joining the WTO.
And there is an historic opportunity for China to influence the course of regional - and global - economic cooperation when it hosts APEC in Shanghai later this year.
The welcome choice of Beijing to host the 2008 Olympics recognises that China is opening to the world, and the world to China. We hope it will also cause China to look closely at its domestic record, including in the area of human rights, and how it presents itself to the world.
The China-US relationship
The pre-eminence of the United States, and the rise of China, are realities that place a responsibility on both countries to manage their relationship. It is pivotal to the region, and underlines the importance of constructive engagement as the means to integrate China into the international system.
There is, in fact, significant goodwill between the two countries. Often this is ignored by those who want to highlight Sino-US differences. Between 1978 and 1996, for example, more than 250,000 Chinese students attended universities in the United States Those numbers continue to remain significant.
I am confident that the leaders of both countries recognise the fundamental importance of maintaining constructive relations, based on mutual respect, and avoiding unnecessary clashes. This does not mean there won't be important differences. But there is no reason why these differences should lead to conflict.
Washington's strong support for China's early entry to the WTO is important, and welcome. And despite initial problems over the EP-3 collision, and US missile defence plans, there are strong elements of continuity in US policy towards China and the region.
I believe US policy towards China will continue to be governed by sound strategic and economic considerations. And in this light I welcome US Secretary of State Powell's recent comments in Beijing that the US does not see China as an enemy, nor does it seek an enemy. President Bush's visit to China in October is an important opportunity to improve relations.
Missile defence
Clearly, the missile defence issue will be one that requires careful management by both China and the United States.
Australia understands why the United States wants a missile defence system. The global strategic outlook has changed. We are confronted by new and less predictable threats. The proliferation of weapons technology to so-called 'rogue states' is a very serious concern. It is not in the interests of Australia, or the Asia-Pacific region, for US interests to be challenged by the proliferation of missile technology.
Reassuring China on missile defence is important. The United States needs to persuade China that missile defence is not motivated by concerns about China. The United States is undertaking an intensive and sustained consultation with allies on missile defence. We are encouraged that Washington is also doing so with China.
Australia's relationship with China
Before concluding my address, I want to refer briefly to Australia's own relationship with China. Next year marks the 30th anniversary of Australia recognising the People's Republic of China - an important milestone. Today, we approach our relationship on the basis of mutual respect and mutual advantage.
Naturally there are differences - sometimes important ones. But both sides have agreed to manage these constructively in the interests of the broader relationship. High-level contacts are vital. Such contacts do not make differences go away, but they do help each side to understand the other and prevent miscalculation.
Continued dialogue across a broad range of areas is important. Australia and China now have dialogues on trade and investment, bilateral and international political issues, regional security, defence, human rights, aid and consular issues. These are important in building and maintaining trust and understanding across the relationship.
We have developed a strong bilateral relationship. China is now Australia's third largest overall trading partner, and our fifth largest export market. Its commercial importance will grow even greater over the next decade. We are working with China in regional institutions like APEC, the ASEAN Regional Forum. We strongly support China's bid to join the WTO. And we wholeheartedly welcome China's hosting of the 2008 Olympics. In short, we are contributing to the positive engagement of China in the region - and the world.
Conclusion
Australia has a fundamental interest in encouraging both China and the United States to maintain constructive relations. We want China and the United States to exercise patience and prudence in dealing with differences between them. In doing so, both countries will be making a significant contribution to building a safer, more secure, strategic environment in the Asia-Pacific region.
I end on a note of considered optimism. There are unresolved strategic concerns in the Asia-Pacific region. But there are also important factors working towards a more promising environment for stability. Engaging China positively in the region is one of these.
It is in all our interests to ensure that China gains the place that properly matches its current role and future potential in the region, and in the world.
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