Australia and Thailand : A Shared Future

Address by The Hon Alexander Downer, MP, Minister for Foreign Affairs, to the 10th Joint Business Conference of the Australia Thailand Business Council (ATBC), Perth, 15 September 1997.


Introduction

Your Excellency Dr Narongchai, Thailand's Minister for Commerce, the Honourable Richard Court, MLA, Premier of Western Australia, Her Excellency Mrs Laxanachantorn Laohapan, Thailand's Ambassador to Australia, His Excellency Mr Cavan Hogue, Australia's Ambassador to Thailand, Mr Narong Luesakul, Thai President of the Australia Thailand Business Council, Mr John Connor, Australian President, Australia Thailand Business Council, ladies and gentlemen.

It is a great pleasure for me to be able to address today the 10th Joint Business Conference of the Australia Thailand Business Council. I know that some of you have travelled here from Thailand and we are very pleased to see you here. I particularly welcome Dr Narongchai who - as a graduate of the University of Western Australia - knows first hand the benefits that an Australian education can offer. Dr Narongchai must be convinced because he's also sending his children here for their education!

Today's meeting provides a valuable forum for business people from Australia and Thailand to come together, to canvass the opportunities for increased trade and investment and, most importantly, assemble mutually profitable deals.

I want to speak first today about the White Paper, secondly, the Australian government's confidence in South East Asia's prospects and, thirdly, the bilateral relationship.

PART ONE: The White Paper and Australia's Commitment to the Asia Pacific

Australia's first ever White Paper on Foreign and Trade Policy brings together everything that the Government has been doing in foreign and trade policy since March last year, and charts the way ahead for Australia's place in our regional neighbourhood and the world in the 21st century.

The fundamental message of the White Paper is that Australia is committed to the Asia Pacific for the long haul, and that Australia's highest foreign policy priority is to make a lasting contribution to the region. It reflects the weight of Australian interests which are engaged with the Asia Pacific: with ASEAN, the countries of North East Asia and the Pacific, including the United States.

As a member of the Asia Pacific, and with one of the most East Asian-oriented economies in the world, it makes perfect sense for Australia to build on the foundations which complementary economies and geographic proximity provide.

The White Paper underlines Australia's accelerating involvement in the life of the Asia Pacific, and the enormous potential to expand our ties across the region. It recognises that the sustaining force behind the Asia Pacific's dynamism is economic liberalisation.

The White Paper identifies globalisation and the rise of East Asia as the two most profound trends in the international environment to which Australia's foreign and trade policies must adapt and respond over the next fifteen years.

Globalisation offers huge opportunities for internationally competitive economies, but also brings in its wake challenges for political and economic management. The White Paper's judgement is that economic growth in industrialising Asia will continue at relatively high levels over the next fifteen years. The World Bank forecasts growth for East Asia - excluding Japan - over the next decade at 6.8 per cent, compared with 2.4 per cent for Western Europe and North America.
All of this means that the countries of East Asia will become even more important to Australia as trade and investment partners, and in security terms. It also has implications for Australia's relative standing in the region, and significant consequences for the broader relativities of power and influence in the Asia Pacific and beyond.

The White Paper defines a `jobs foreign and trade policy' for Australia. Its whole-of-government approach recognises that - in a global economy - the competitiveness of the Australian economy will be the single most important determinant of Australia's future.

Our industries have already made considerable progress in this area as protection has been reduced and they have had to meet world standards. This graph from the White Paper (Graph A) clearly demonstrates that exports have grown as protection has been reduced over the last decade or so. We will, of course, continue to press for other countries to lower their trade barriers as well. In large part, this process is already well under way. Again we can see clearly - with the help of some more illustrations from the White Paper - the extent to which our major trading partners in the Asia Pacific have also been reducing their tariff barriers. It is clearly the case in South East Asia (Graph B), in North East Asia (Graph C) and in the Americas (Graph D).

The White Paper's reaffirmation that the Asia Pacific and, in particular, East Asia, is our highest foreign and trade policy priority helps Australian exporters make the most of regional developments. Again, I'd like to show you three graphs which tell a very clear story about why we are focusing on the region. Firstly, (Graph E) East Asian economies are forecast to increase significantly their proportion of world GDP by the year 2010. Secondly (Graph F), looked at individually, the wealth of Indonesia and Thailand has increased dramatically since 1980 and will increase even more over the next decade or so - with Indonesia - on current predictions - overhauling Australia. On a per capita basis (Graph G) Singapore is the star performer, already having a higher per capita GDP than Australia, but Malaysia and Thailand will also improve significantly by 2010.

The White Paper also plays another important role in setting out, again for the first time, the economic, strategic and cultural assets which Australia brings to its pursuit of foreign and trade policy. Perhaps chief amongst these is our capacity to adapt successfully to changing geopolitical realities.

Australia has built strong economic and cultural links with Europe but has also engaged successfully with the Asia Pacific and the rest of the world. Australia's economic links, and increasingly its people-to-people links, are now predominantly with the Asia Pacific.

Australia has thrown open its doors to the world and has welcomed peoples of more than 130 different nationalities. The tolerance evident in Australia's day-to-day life is testimony to the fact that the vast majority of Australians believe in a fair and non-discriminatory approach. No amount of inflammatory rhetoric by a maverick rejected by 95 per cent of the population will change that.

The White Paper reaffirms the principle which informs the collective actions of over ninety-five per cent of Australians: that is, an unqualified commitment to racial equality and eliminating all forms of racial discrimination. Let me make it perfectly clear - the Member for Oxley, with support of only 5 per cent of the population has not, does not and will not be making Australian foreign and trade policy - the Government, on behalf of the vast majority of the Australian people, will be.

PART TWO: South-East Asia's Prospects and Australia's role

The White Paper demonstrates that - along with the major economies of the Asia Pacific, the United States, Japan and China - the countries of ASEAN will be at the forefront of Australia's endeavours to build closer bilateral relationships. As you in this room know better than most, Australia's partnership with our ASEAN neighbours is expanding more and more, as we look for ways to deepen our relationship to our mutual benefit.

There is no doubt, however, that - despite solid medium-to-long term prospects - recent developments in the region's financial and currency markets have posed a challenge for ASEAN countries and Thailand in particular.

We consider that the lesson provided by the region's progress in the last few decades is a very clear one. Sound macroeconomic policies and deregulated markets, open to global trade and investment - these are the fundamentals which have laid the most long term and sustainable basis for growth and for developing prosperous competitive industries.

The positive path of increasing openness has been one which - in general terms - ASEAN countries have followed for some time. We have confidence that they will continue to follow that path. Australia has known the difficulties which a sudden currency adjustment can create. We know it can be painful. We believe, however, that it is possible to emerge all the stronger, particularly if the right economic framework is kept in place.

This is an economic lesson which the White Paper has underlined for Australia and its relations with the region.

Some commentators have, however, been critical of the White Paper's judgement that East Asia will continue to grow significantly over the next fifteen years and that its growth will be crucial for Australia's future. They point to the recent currency and market adjustments in South-East Asia as evidence that the East Asian miracle has come to an end.

As Foreign Minister I do not wish to comment on the direction that financial and currency markets may take in the short term. But the knee-jerk reactions we are seeing from some commentators underline the importance of the White Paper's longer term approach.

By looking at the fundamentals of the economies of the region - and where they are likely to head over a decade or more - we can identify what is really in this country's long term interests. Importantly, several of these key fundamentals are unchanged - for example, the commitment to open economies and continued de-regulation; and receptivity to inward foreign investment.

The World Bank's principal regional economist only recently pointed out that the countries of South East Asia are all maintaining sound fiscal positions with Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore and Thailand all running budget surpluses last year.

Moreover, regional economies continue to maintain high rates of domestic savings - Malaysia, Indonesia, Singapore and Thailand all save more than a third of annual national income. Underlying inflation is relatively low in Malaysia, Singapore and Thailand. And the nations of South-East Asia remain competitive producers of various goods and services that have strong international growth prospects. Indeed they are all the more competitive now that local currencies have dropped, particularly against the yen.

Even Paul Krugman - a well known sceptic about Asia's long-term growth prospects - has pointed out that these currency movements do not tell us much about the long term. In fact, Krugman expects Asia's growth to resume, albeit at slower rates but driven by education, savings, and growing labour force participation.

We should also take note of the views of the President of the World Bank, Jim Wolfensohn, who was quoted earlier this month as remaining "bullish on East Asia". He said:

"When there is a storm going on, it looks very black. But history seems to show that in the end fundamental economics prevail ... after a period of quiet and reflection, you'll see the return of confidence in Asian markets."

All of this should give us considerable confidence in the medium to long term growth prospects for East Asia - as the White Paper concluded. It identified tremendous opportunities for Australia to benefit from the growth and development both in North East and South East Asia over the next fifteen years.

Let me say clearly that Australia's confidence in the fundamentals of the region, and its extraordinary prospects for the next fifteen years are unchanged by recent events. The fundamentals remain and I am confident that prudent policy settings will prevail.

I am pleased, therefore, to see the measures that the Indonesian and Malaysian governments have now taken to address the situation. Indonesia's 3 September package of measures lifted limits on foreign shareholdings, imposed greater budget discipline, lowered tariffs on imported inputs to export products and strongly encouraged mergers of smaller financial institutions. This was well received by the markets. Malaysia too has now freed up share trading and has moved to improve its current account deficit with a positive market response.

I want to add, though, that you can count on the Australian Government doing what it can as a regional player to assist Thailand and the region to surmount these sort of short term currency movements. That is why we have made a contribution of up to USD 1 billion to last month's IMF rescue package for Thailand.

Australia applauds Thailand's decision to accept the reform measures proposed by the IMF as part of the USD 16 billion package agreed last month. The package will require ongoing structural reform of the Thai economy - and hopefully will open up new opportunities for trade and investment.

The IMF package represents a win-win situation for Thailand and for regional contributors including Australia. It is an investment in Thailand's future and in the region's economic stability and continuing growth. Economic stability in Thailand and the region is in the best interests of Australia's sizable export and investment presence in the region and it is also a responsibility which as a friend and neighbour we are happy to share.

Indeed, our action in assisting Thailand through the IMF package was a natural outgrowth of our place in the region. As one commentator said in The Australian, "In joining Hong Kong, Singapore and Malaysia ... in the (baht) stabilisation program, Australia has done more for its regional credentials in one day's action in Tokyo than a year of blather from Canberra".

I may not have put it quite that way myself but the basic point is clear: Australia is not just a fair weather friend - it is committed to the neighbourhood for the long haul. I should also say that I often use the term neighbourhood because it captures the sense of proximity, friendship and mutual assistance which characterises Australia's relations with its regional partners.

PART THREE: Australia and Thailand - A Strengthening Relationship

I'd like now to turn to Australia and Thailand's relationship. After a decade of extraordinarily high growth, Thailand is going through a period of transition and adjustment. This is a challenging process for policy makers.

During the current period of economic transition, we welcome Thailand's commitment to intensifying economic reform and trade liberalisation. I am confident that Thailand will continue in its march towards liberalisation, and as a consequence, I have faith that Thailand's future remains strong.

Given this promising future there is still further scope to strengthen our relationship, especially through expanded trade and investment.

I was accordingly very pleased to see that the Conference organisers have taken as the theme for today's conference the challenge of doubling trade and investment by 2000. My colleague Mr Fischer and myself, and our counterparts Dr Narongchai and Mr Prachuab, the Thai Foreign Minister, set this challenge at the conclusion of the Ministerial Economic Commission in Canberra in February. In setting this objective, I believe both Governments were expressing their confidence in the private sectors in both Australia and Thailand and drawing attention to the many opportunities which exist for increased bilateral commercial contact.

Thailand is a very valued partner for Australia in the region. It is strategically placed in mainland South East Asia. It is the second largest economy in ASEAN. Thailand is also a close partner for Australia in forums such as the CER/AFTA link, APEC and the Cairns Group. Also reflecting Australia's close relationship with Thailand, I recently agreed with Foreign Minister Prachuab to establish an important bilateral security dialogue.

The Government also hopes to enhance the linkages between CER and AFTA - for which we can thank Thailand which first proposed such links in 1993. We were therefore interested to note that - only a fortnight ago - Singapore's Trade and Industry Minister, Lee Yock Suan, spoke of the potential stimulus to regional economic growth were CER and AFTA to be linked in the long term. This is a concept in which I have a particular interest and indeed there are many areas of cooperation which could be expanded fruitfully in the mean time.

The Government has also focused on developing our bilateral trade with Thailand.

Last year, we established the high-level bilateral Market Development Task Force, which coordinates market access and development through bilateral mechanisms with key markets, including Thailand. Following strong support for several priorities in the Thai market under the Market Development Task Force, we have been very pleased with a number of significant outcomes over the past twelve months.

For example, the government gave strong support to Australian companies bidding for banking and insurance licences in the Thai market during the past year. The National Australia Bank was awarded a Bangkok International Banking Facility licence at the beginning of this year, and my colleague Mr Fischer is looking forward to opening their new Branch in Bangkok next month. We were similarly delighted that National Mutual was awarded an insurance licence this year.

Similarly the Government worked hard to support Australian interests in consortia which submitted successful bids in Thailand's Independent Power Producers Program. The Government has followed up with a public relations program to promote Australian black coal for use by the successful consortia.

In recognition of the continuing opportunities that we believe exist in Thailand, I intend to visit Thailand again in November, and Mr Fischer will pay an official visit to Thailand next month. These visits are clear tokens of our continuing belief in Thailand's enduring strength and importance. We are very keen to continue to work with the Thai Government in support of increased trade and investment. This will, no doubt, be a two-way process: a lower baht will mean more competitive exports and, in all likelihood, a tourism boom.

For our part, ongoing priorities include market access for a number of agricultural items and automotive products. And I look forward to discussing some of these issues with Dr Narongchai later today.

I should also note that Dr Narongchai has been very supportive of ongoing liberalisation in Thailand, and I thank him for his support of a number of Australia's priority market access issues.
One important opportunity for Australian business to participate in training in Thailand is through the Australia Thailand Youth Ambassadors Program which I established last year. The Australian Government has approved funding of $500,000 to place young Australians in Thailand between 1997 and 2001, and I call on business to match our contribution.

I encourage all of you to consider funding the placement of a young Australian in Thailand to participate in the Program. The subsequent contacts which are developed are likely to contribute directly to future economic links.

Conclusion

I would like to conclude by noting that the Government believes that our words must be matched by our deeds.

The White Paper has made clear that Australia's highest foreign and trade policy priority will be the Asia Pacific, and particularly East Asia, because we believe that the economic growth of East Asia over the medium to long term will be crucial to Australia's future.

We have demonstrated our commitment to the region through our continued involvement in forums contributing to the region's economic and political stability, through our early action in contributing USD 1 billion to last month's IMF package and through our commitment to education and other people-to-people links.

This is the reality of the Australian Government's policies towards Asia, and of Australian popular sentiment. It is a policy about commitment to the region, participation in the region and building links with our region.

In the 20th century, the Australian experience of nation building has been one of growth, adaptation and social progress - Australia can therefore look confidently to meeting the challenges of the new millennium.

An important partnership as we move into the future will, of course, be that between Australia and Thailand. I salute the efforts of those here today who are directly contributing to strengthening our trade and investment relationship.
The challenge for all of us, both Thai and Australian, is to look to new opportunities that are being created in an evolving Asia-Pacific.

Ultimately, our futures are tied together. We share a common region. We share common challenges. And I am proud to say, we are well placed to make the most of our common opportunities.